FBI Probe: The Petersburg Dan Saga Goes All Stupid

Note: It will help tremendously if you can read this in the voice of Dorothy Zbornak. If you don't know who that is, we can't be friends.

Losing in superior court is embarrassing. Losing at the Alaska Supreme Court three hours after oral argument is humiliating. Did anyone consider sucking up their string of losses and simply walking away?

Clearly, nope.

NBC News reports that the FBI, the Alaska attorney general, and the U.S. attorney's office in Alaska are now all investigating whether Petersburg Dan Sullivan's campaign is a conspiracy to confuse voters, hurt supposed tough-guy Senator Dan "Ohio" Sullivan, and boost Mary Peltola. ABC News confirms the DOJ angle, with a source saying investigators are sniffing around for wire fraud or a conspiracy to make the election "unfair."

That's right. A retired Petersburg elementary school teacher who spent his career with fourth graders and the Forest Service is now the subject of a federal probe.

For running for office....under his own name.

Let's meet the stars. FBI Director Kash Patel? A QAnon conspiracy crank and loosey goosey boozer appointed by Trump. U.S. Attorney Michael Hyman? Trump appointee. Acting Alaska Attorney General Cori Mills? Dunleavy appointee. Just so it's clear - the "is this a Democrat plot?" question is being examined by a prosecutor and FBI director installed by Trump and an AG installed by the governor whose Division of Undemocratic Elections already tried - and failed, twice, in the span of one week - to erase Petersburg Dan Sullivan from the ballot.

Seems totally legit.

For those of you not keeping score, the Republicans haven't been doing too great. Let's recap!

On June 15, Division of Undemocratic Elections Director Carol Beecher (a registered Alaska Republican & Trump donor) yanked Petersburg Dan off the ballot for filing in "bad faith" - a standard that exists nowhere in the constitution or statute. On June 26, Judge Thomas Matthews benchslapped that decision and ruled that Peterburg Dan could appear on the ballot. On June 29, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Matthews before our lunch got cold, with Chief Justice Susan Carney noting during oral argument that the Division had reached for "the most extreme remedy possible" when a middle initial would do.

Zero for two in court. Fine, we'll just launch a federal investigation!

And what's the actual evidence of this grand conspiracy? The NRSC has filed three FEC complaints - a paperwork-deadline gripe, a ho-hum allegation that consultant Amber Lee helped write his launch press release, and that Petersburg Dan has (gasp) previously donated to a couple of Democrats, one of whom is running in Illinois! Ahh, a press release and some old donation receipts. FWIW - Peltola's campaign and the Alaska Democratic Party flatly deny any involvement with either Sullivan campaign, and Petersburg Dan has denied any coordination with anyone from day one.

Here's what to remember as the outrage machine prepares to spin up: nothing reported to date alleges conduct that two Alaska courts didn't just finish saying is legal. Much to Carol Beecher's chagrin, motive doesn't determine ballot eligibility. To turn "a guy named Dan Sullivan ran for Senate" into wire fraud, prosecutors would need to build a crime out of behavior the judiciary just blessed. Sources told NBC it's not even clear who could face charges, or whether any of this will land before Alaskans vote in the August 18 pick-one primary.

The 🌶️ bit: On July 1, the Cook Political Report moved this race to Toss-up - citing the ballot ruling as the thing that pushed it over the edge - and Inside Elections did the same. The math: Democrats need to flip four seats to take the Senate. North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio hypothetically get them to three. Seat number four has to come from somewhere, and Alaska is suddenly one of the only somewheres on the map.

All that to say - the thing MAGA is terrified of holds true no matter what the Department of Justice does: both Sullivans and Peltola can advance out of the primary, and come November, ranked-choice voting means how voters choose to rank matters immensely in a race that could decide control of the U.S. Senate.

Expect Ohio Dan's camp to keep saying "rigged" and "sham" into every available microphone, and expect conveniently timed leaks from this alleged investigation right up until ballots drop.